All eyes are on Massachusettes today as the state is holding a special election to fill Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat. Early polls were showing that the Republican candidate, Scott Brown, was ahead of the Democratic candidate, Martha Coakley. The significance of this election comes down to if the Senate will continue to have a supermajority of 60 votes. If Brown wins, the Republicans would have enough members in the Senate to successfully filibuster future legislation, including the healthcare reform bill. This does not mean that healthcare reform is dead, but it would put a big wrinkle in Democrats plans.

It is important to note that it is still possible to pass healthcare reform. The most viable way is to utilize the Senate bill as the base bill. The House would be required to pass the Senate bill without any amendments. The Senate, since it already passed this bill, would not need to act again and would therefore not need to overcome a likely future filibuster. If the identical Senate bill is passed in the House, it could then be sent to the President’s desk for signature. Would the House accept the Senate bill as-is? Still uncertain, but with pressure from the White House, and the “it’s this or nothing” ultimatum – – it’s a likely scenario.

If the House rejects the Senate bill as-is, Democratic leaders will likely try to woo a moderate Republican such a Olympia Snowe to be the 60th vote. (This may prove to be a little tough.) Additionally, there is a possibility that the MA Democratic Governor may wait several weeks to certify the election results if Brown wins, that is, not certify the election results until after health care reform is signed into law. (This avenue would subject the Democrats to significant criticism and is likely not the path many want to take).

The fun continues! Stay tuned……..